YEAR ROUND COMMENT ON THE GLOBAL GRAIN AND OILSEEDS MARKETS
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ANALYSIS: Covid-19 responses test limits of globalism and food security
Published March 2020 by Tim Worledge, AgriCensus
With governments around the world ratcheting up measures intended to control the spread of Covid-19, hastily implemented policies have started to show up the fragility of globalist policies that the agriculture trade has come to rely on.
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CASH MARKET WRAP: China wheat, corn buying redresses Covid hit
Published March 2020 by Tim Worledge, AgriCensus
Wheat
In a week to remember for the markets, wheat emerged with its head above the water as cash demand around the world supported the trade as capital markets were sold off hard.
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Q & A WITH IFC UKRAINE CROP RECEIPTS PROJECT
Published November 2019 by Natalia Skurativska, Outreach and Stakeholders Expert, Ukraine Crop Receipts Project
1. Why Ukraine?
Ukraine is an excellent and prospective place to source your grain supply. The reason for this is that the country is among largest world grain exporters showing high positive trends year-to-year. 70 million tons of grains were produced in Ukraine in 2018 50 million of which were exported. With 33 million hectares of rich black soils and favorable weather conditions the country has a great potential for further yield growth. At the same time Ukrainian agri-producers are professional and highly responsible business-people, who understand world markets and modern trading instruments.
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VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: IS THE RUSSIAN EXPORT FINANCING SECTOR ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITS GROWTH?
Interview with Igor Ukrasin, Head Corporate Banking & Coverage Member Of Executive Board, Sberbank | Published October 2019
Last July Russia announced the Agriculture Strategy to 2035 and its foreseeable effects on the country’s exports. Is the Russian export financing sector able to sustain this growth?
The strategy is ambitious but makes perfect sense as it aims to further diversify Russian economy away from the oil and gas sector. Considerable investment will be required in local infrastructure, but Russian domestic banks are well equipped to support it. We, as well as other international banks, the other hand, would be happy to help on the pure export trade finance side. Don’t think that availability of financing is going to be a blocking factor here...
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: WHEAT HARVEST PROJECTIONS IN RUSSIA
Published September 2019 by Dan Basse, President, AgResource
As of Sep 09, Russia had harvested 65.5 MMT of wheat and the cumulative yield averaged 3.15 MT/HA. It is estimated that 74% of Russia’s wheat area (both winter and spring crops) had been harvested. A year ago, 68% of wheat area had been harvested, and yields at that time averaged 3.22 MT/HA. The chart below compares this year’s weekly cumulative average wheat yields (red line) to the previous five years. Note that, as the harvest progresses, the cumulative average yield declines..
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: US CORN MARKET, VALUE-ADD CROPS IN SOUTH AMERICA AND AFRICAN SWINE FLU
Interview with Professor Rodrigo Alexandre Gomes de Oliveira, Chief Trading Officer, Bourbon Brown Trade Management | Published July 2019
The US have recently experienced a challenging corn planting season. How will this impact global and South American markets?
We have to bear in mind that the bad weather that the US is facing is probably the worst they had in the past 35 to 40 years. I truly believe that the world will face a direct impact in rising corn prices because of the US weather problem. Most likley, everyone in the industry will have to come to South America in order to fulfill their corn needs. It will most likely bring a huge higher price pressure to South America. Port premium is predicted to rise and south American corn producers will probably be able to get better prices for their production...
SHRINKING CORN SUPPLY? THE HIGHTOWER REPORT
Published July 2019 by David Hightower, The Hightower Report
Get a free trial of the Hightower Report when you register for Global Grain South America.
The USDA shocked the corn market with its US Planted Acreage Report on June 28th. The report showed producers planting 91.70 million acres of corn this year, down 1.09 million acres from the USDA Prospective Plantings Report in March. Traders were expecting a drop of 5.1 million acres for the report, and many had believed that actual lost acres could be ultimately reach 6-10 million acres. After the report’s release, it did not take long for December Corn to go to limit down at $4.26. The range on the day was 42 cents, a new record. The market came off of limit down on news from the USDA that they would resurvey 14 states and release updated data on August 12th..
GLOBAL GRAIN AWARDS RECOGNISES THE 2018 GRAINS AND OILSEEDS LEADERS
Published December 2018
The Global Grain Awards took place on 13 November 2018 at the InterContinental Hotel Geneva. It attracted 120 attendees and celebrated the achievements of 20 organisations across 8 categories.
Organised by Global Grain and hosted during Global Grain Geneva, one of the biggest grain conferences in the world, the awards ceremony is the only event focused on the innovation, vision and services of organisations in the grains and oilseeds community. For the second year in a row it brought together leading stakeholders from across the supply chain to recognise their achievements in the past twelve months.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: WHEAT AND CORN PRODUCTION, PROTECTIONISM, IMO AND MORE
Interview with James Colquhoun, Senior Grains Pricing Specialist, S&P Global Platts | Published September 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
The first important issue is climate change. Without proper environmental safeguards to minimize CO2 emissions, we risk disrupting and altering our ecosystems on which we rely to bring ourselves consistency and predictability. Without appropriate rainfall amongst other key ingredients for heathy growth of grains, production levels will likely decrease, especially in the longer term. When coupled with growing demand due to population increases, prices risk becoming incredibly firm and unmanageable, especially for the least advantaged.
The second major issue is the trend towards protectionism. The likely result of protectionist measures is...
60 SECONDS WITH AN INDUSTRY LEADER: DAN BASSE
Snapshot interview with Dan Basse, President, AgResource Chicago | Published September 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
Trade Disputes and world grain yields rising faster than demand.
What impact will current market conditions have on market fundamentals for the next marketing year and production in your region? What are the implications for grain and oilseed pricing?
Weather and African Swine Fever across China.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: PROFITABILITY, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS STRATEGY, GROWING GLOBAL DEMAND AND MORE
Interview with Stefan Vogel, Head of the Agri Commodities Markets Research Team and Global Sector Strategist for Grains & Oilseed, Rabobank | Published August 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
1. Profitability: No business can sustain if they are not profitable. Costs, risk management and business strategies all play into it. Short-term market changes like the Trade Wars can have a massive impact on the business and even so the market currently looks closely at them, they will either fade away or become the new normal. Being prepared for those hard to predict changes and being able to adapt, is what makes a great company and might break those that don’t.
2. A sustainable business model and strategy: Markets are changing and roles of the players in those markets are also changing. What made money yesterday, might not generate much income in the future. Continuous evaluation of a company’s business model and future strategy is crucial. We have often seen that those companies that were willing to implement needed changes early and properly have strived.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: US-CHINA TRADE WAR EFFECTS, OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOUTH AMERICA AND MORE
Interview with Daniel Furlan Amaral, Chief Economist, Abiove | Published August 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
The two most important issues for the oilseed market are US trade policy and China’s reaction. US policy may dislocate third countries’ exports and affect their competitiveness. This may happen in Europe, where US soybeans may create a potential risk for Brazilian soy and meal exports. China’s reaction may create new risks and opportunities. Agreements with the US may result in improved access for North American products. On the other hand, China may see these uncertainties in trade relations as a warning for food security and invest in third countries to reduce dependence.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: CLIMATE CHANGE, BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRICES, GRAIN FREIGHT RATES AND MORE
Interview with Marcos Araujo, Analyst, Agrinvest Commodities | Published August 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
1 – Trade war USA x China
The soybeans trade flow is being affected by tariffs between USA and China. China will concentrate its soybean imports mainly from Brazil, which puts Brazil at risk to the extent of supply for domestic consumption for the 2018/2019 crop.
2 – Extreme weather events
The failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation of new varieties of soybean, corn and wheat. The world coarse grains are falling at critical inventory levels.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: EL NIŇO, SOYBEAN PRICES, ALGO TRADING, PROSPECTS IN THE MATOPIBA REGION AND MORE
Interview with Prof. Rodrigo A Gomes de Oliveira, Director - Head of Strategy, Agro Financiera | Published August 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
All of my work is related to speculative strategies with soybean futures and price risk management, therefore this is my area of expertise. So I will focus my thoughts on such matters. I would say that on either speculating or managing price risk in the short term only two things would bring good opportunities: 1) The end of the trade war between the US and China, 2) A worsening of the United States climate.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: US VS CHINA, SOYBEAN AND CORN PRICES, BRAZIL AS THE NEXT HOTSPOT REGION & MORE
Interview with Pedro Dejneka, Partner and Co-Founder, MD Commodities | Published August 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
If we are talking exclusively about “economic/geo-political” issues, I’d say U.S. x China and the impact it is already having and can have going forward is front and center in most people’s minds. The market so far had done a tremendous job of “rebalancing” itself in the face of the commercial “stand-off” between the U.S. x China, particularly in the case of soybeans. Basically, China has gone shopping for Brazilian soybeans, taking export basis to levels unseen there, while the rest of the world enjoys U.S. soybeans at a great discount to its export competitor down south.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: CHINA'S SOYBEAN IMPORT TARIFF, WORLD FREIGHT RATES, DATA SECURITY AND MORE
Interview with Martijn Sinke, General Manager Northern Europe, Agri-Commodities, Bureau Veritas | Published July 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
Geopolitics and changing trading patterns
Food safety, quality and sustainability.
What impact will current market conditions have on market fundamentals for the next marketing year and production in your region? What are the implications for grain and oilseed pricing?
If USA beans will remain to be captive to an import tax by China we will see that for next marketing year more beans from USA will continue to find its way to EU and other regions. This could mean continued high production of SBM by local crushing plants in the ARA Range fuelled by US beans.
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WHAT ARE THE CORE VALUES THAT SHAPE THE GLOBAL GRAIN INDUSTRY?
Published June 2018 by Alex Bell, Senior Conference Producer, Global Grain
As we begin to hear the forecasts of the 2018/2019 crop and the economists start to calculate the implications of the new forecasts (#drought18, #globalbeastfromtheeast, #whoknows), I have been looking forward and putting together the agenda for the Global Grain Geneva Conference and Awards 2018.
As with all conferences it is key to establish a theme for the year, a thread which will tie in all of the outlooks and deeper dive discussions. In preparation for this year's conference I canvassed leaders and members of the global grain community, eager to get their thoughts and ideas...
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THE EAGLE AND THE DRAGON: THE CONTEXT, IMPLICATIONS AND LEGALITY OF THE LATEST US - CHINA TARIFFS
Published April 2018 by Brian Perrott, Partner, HFW
Trump's recent steel and aluminium tariff measures – which will mainly affect Chinese goods – may deliver a ratings boost before the 2018 midterm elections. However, the counter tariffs imposed by China, and the further tech tariffs threatened by Trump may lead to a trade war.
But is it sensible to play politics with protectionism? Are the tariffs legal under WTO rules? And is a rise in global protectionism likely to affect post-Brexit Britain? The impact of a US – China trade war on the soft commodities markets in particular is a cause for concern – what are the contractual implications for traders?
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CANADA: GROWING GOOD THINGS
Published March 2018 by Gary Stanford, President & Director, Grain Growers of Canada & Alberta Wheat Commission
Given Canada’s famously cool climate, people are often curious which crops are typically grown in Canada. In truth, there really is no “typical” Canadian farm, with the country’s vast size and varied geography. Canada produces everything from tulips, to cranberries and pumpkins to wheat. Canada stretches 5500 kilometers wide from coast to coast and farms vary in elevation from 30 meters above sea level to 1500 meters above sea level. Farms also contrast considerably in size, any where from a few acres to tens of thousands of acres.
Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada tend to grow warmer season crops, while Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta produce the majority of the cooler season (more frost tolerant) grain and oilseed crops...
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WHEAT IMPORTS GO ON HIGHER THAN EXPECTED IN 2017/18 SEASON
Published February 2018 by Günhan Ulusoy, Chairman of the Board, Ulusoy UN
In the light of the available historical evidence going back 12 thousand years ago, Gobeklitepe located in the city of Sanliurda Turkey, is a well-known region where human beings had learned to thrive through agriculture and found a permanent settlement which we can trace back to the cultivation of wheat.
Thanks to wheat, which could supply the daily energy source needed and could be cultivated in any convenient field, the period of time allocated for hunting and gathering decreased. So people had more time to spend on activities such as architecture, religion and socialization...
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THE STORE-WAY TO HUNAN: CHINA'S GRAIN STORAGE PROBLEM
Published January 2018 by Mike Jeapes, Portfolio Director, Global Grain Events
China is one of the largest stakeholders in ensuring global food security. Informed speculators are taking positions to benefit; they’re putting it all on red.
China’s solution is to control the global grain supply chain. By subsidising recent upgrades on internal loading and transportation facilities, and with its trading firms acquiring interests in origination markets as well transport and logistics firms, China is reducing the risk in ensuring its population’s food needs are met...
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THE GRAIN OPPORTUNITY NEXT DOOR
Published January 2018 by Olumide Famakinwa, CEO, Firstling Ltd
2017 bows out in style and 2018 slowly creeps in. Quite a resilient business year with a lot of positive components surging into 2018. Companies, Countries and Continents have hit the overdrive on their performance and result. Analysis filtering on country A growing by x% while another declined by y%. The developments and declines are being attributed to one major or several reasons, discussions centered around real GDP growth, income growth, commodity prices and economic trends...
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BLACK SEA IN 2017: RECORD CROP AND EXPORTS. WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2018?
Published January 2018 by Svetlana Malysh, Black Sea Agriculture Markets Analyst, Thomson Reuters
In 2017 Black Sea countries kept increasing their grain crops and exports, mainly due to the record crop and stocks in Russian. According to the results of 2017/18 season Black Sea may became the world leading grain exporter. According to Thomson Reuters’ specialists, next season Black Sea region may retain its high grain export potential...
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THE STATE INTERVENTIONIST MONSTER
Published November 2017 by Marcelo Neri, CEO, Alphamar
In July 2001, I made my first international business trip. Exactly two months before the infamous September 11th, I was near the Twin Towers.
The person who is now my partner called me and asked me to pass by the first bookstore in New York to buy a copy of the magazine "The Economist". He said to me, "Go in…
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INFORMALLY ACQUIRING THE GLOBAL GRAIN INDUSTRY
Published August 2017 by Mike Jeapes, Portfolio Director, Global Grain Events
News outlets have been reporting that following the latest financial round of results, Bunge is on the ropes. While it’s likely that they’ll bounce back, especially if they’re Bunge ropes, that hasn’t thrown Glencore off of the M&A scent.
Back in May, Glencore made an “informal” takeover approach for Bunge. I’ve yet to witness an informal takeover approach; presumably Glencore…
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