YEAR ROUND COMMENT ON THE GLOBAL GRAIN AND OILSEEDS MARKETS

VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: CLIMATE CHANGE, BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRICES, GRAIN FREIGHT RATES AND MORE

Interview with Marcos Araujo, Analyst, Agrinvest Commodities

 

What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
 

1 – Trade war USA x China


The soybeans trade flow is being affected by tariffs between USA and China. China will concentrate its soybean imports mainly from Brazil, which puts Brazil at risk to the extent of supply for domestic consumption for the 2018/2019 crop.


2 – Extreme weather events


The failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation of new varieties of soybean, corn and wheat. The world coarse grains are falling at critical inventory levels.

 

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VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: EL NIŇO, SOYBEAN PRICES, ALGO TRADING, PROSPECTS IN THE MATOPIBA REGION AND MORE

Interview with Prof. Rodrigo A Gomes de Oliveira, Director - Head of Strategy, Agro Financiera | Published August 2018

 

What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?


All of my work is related to speculative strategies with soybean futures and price risk management, therefore this is my area of expertise. So I will focus my thoughts on such matters. I would say that on either speculating or managing price risk in the short term only two things would bring good opportunities: 1) The end of the trade war between the US and China, 2) A worsening of the United States climate. 

 

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VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: US VS CHINA, SOYBEAN AND CORN PRICES, BRAZIL AS THE NEXT HOTSPOT REGION & MORE

Interview with Pedro Dejneka, Partner and Co-Founder, MD Commodities | Published August 2018

 

What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?

 

If we are talking exclusively about “economic/geo-political” issues, I’d say U.S. x China and the impact it is already having and can have going forward is front and center in most people’s minds.  The market so far had done a tremendous job of “rebalancing” itself in the face of the commercial “stand-off” between the U.S. x China, particularly in the case of soybeans.  Basically, China has gone shopping for Brazilian soybeans, taking export basis to levels unseen there, while the rest of the world enjoys U.S. soybeans at a great discount to its export competitor down south. 

 

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