YEAR ROUND COMMENT ON THE GLOBAL GRAIN AND OILSEEDS MARKETS
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: CLIMATE CHANGE, BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRICES, GRAIN FREIGHT RATES AND MORE
Interview with Marcos Araujo, Analyst, Agrinvest Commodities
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
1 – Trade war USA x China
The soybeans trade flow is being affected by tariffs between USA and China. China will concentrate its soybean imports mainly from Brazil, which puts Brazil at risk to the extent of supply for domestic consumption for the 2018/2019 crop.
2 – Extreme weather events
The failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation of new varieties of soybean, corn and wheat. The world coarse grains are falling at critical inventory levels.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: EL NIŇO, SOYBEAN PRICES, ALGO TRADING, PROSPECTS IN THE MATOPIBA REGION AND MORE
Interview with Prof. Rodrigo A Gomes de Oliveira, Director - Head of Strategy, Agro Financiera | Published August 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
All of my work is related to speculative strategies with soybean futures and price risk management, therefore this is my area of expertise. So I will focus my thoughts on such matters. I would say that on either speculating or managing price risk in the short term only two things would bring good opportunities: 1) The end of the trade war between the US and China, 2) A worsening of the United States climate.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: US VS CHINA, SOYBEAN AND CORN PRICES, BRAZIL AS THE NEXT HOTSPOT REGION & MORE
Interview with Pedro Dejneka, Partner and Co-Founder, MD Commodities | Published August 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
If we are talking exclusively about “economic/geo-political” issues, I’d say U.S. x China and the impact it is already having and can have going forward is front and center in most people’s minds. The market so far had done a tremendous job of “rebalancing” itself in the face of the commercial “stand-off” between the U.S. x China, particularly in the case of soybeans. Basically, China has gone shopping for Brazilian soybeans, taking export basis to levels unseen there, while the rest of the world enjoys U.S. soybeans at a great discount to its export competitor down south.
VIEW FROM THE INDUSTRY: CHINA'S SOYBEAN IMPORT TARIFF, WORLD FREIGHT RATES, DATA SECURITY AND MORE
Interview with Martijn Sinke, General Manager Northern Europe, Agri-Commodities, Bureau Veritas | Published July 2018
What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?
Geopolitics and changing trading patterns
Food safety, quality and sustainability.
What impact will current market conditions have on market fundamentals for the next marketing year and production in your region? What are the implications for grain and oilseed pricing?
If USA beans will remain to be captive to an import tax by China we will see that for next marketing year more beans from USA will continue to find its way to EU and other regions. This could mean continued high production of SBM by local crushing plants in the ARA Range fuelled by US beans.
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WHAT ARE THE CORE VALUES THAT SHAPE THE GLOBAL GRAIN INDUSTRY?
Published June 2018 by Alex Bell, Senior Conference Producer, Global Grain
As we begin to hear the forecasts of the 2018/2019 crop and the economists start to calculate the implications of the new forecasts (#drought18, #globalbeastfromtheeast, #whoknows), I have been looking forward and putting together the agenda for the Global Grain Geneva Conference and Awards 2018.
As with all conferences it is key to establish a theme for the year, a thread which will tie in all of the outlooks and deeper dive discussions. In preparation for this year's conference I canvassed leaders and members of the global grain community, eager to get their thoughts and ideas...
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THE EAGLE AND THE DRAGON: THE CONTEXT, IMPLICATIONS AND LEGALITY OF THE LATEST US - CHINA TARIFFS
Published April 2018 by Brian Perrott, Partner, HFW
Trump's recent steel and aluminium tariff measures – which will mainly affect Chinese goods – may deliver a ratings boost before the 2018 midterm elections. However, the counter tariffs imposed by China, and the further tech tariffs threatened by Trump may lead to a trade war.
But is it sensible to play politics with protectionism? Are the tariffs legal under WTO rules? And is a rise in global protectionism likely to affect post-Brexit Britain? The impact of a US – China trade war on the soft commodities markets in particular is a cause for concern – what are the contractual implications for traders?
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CANADA: GROWING GOOD THINGS
Published March 2018 by Gary Stanford, President & Director, Grain Growers of Canada & Alberta Wheat Commission
Given Canada’s famously cool climate, people are often curious which crops are typically grown in Canada. In truth, there really is no “typical” Canadian farm, with the country’s vast size and varied geography. Canada produces everything from tulips, to cranberries and pumpkins to wheat. Canada stretches 5500 kilometers wide from coast to coast and farms vary in elevation from 30 meters above sea level to 1500 meters above sea level. Farms also contrast considerably in size, any where from a few acres to tens of thousands of acres.
Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada tend to grow warmer season crops, while Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta produce the majority of the cooler season (more frost tolerant) grain and oilseed crops...
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WHEAT IMPORTS GO ON HIGHER THAN EXPECTED IN 2017/18 SEASON
Published February 2018 by Günhan Ulusoy, Chairman of the Board, Ulusoy UN
In the light of the available historical evidence going back 12 thousand years ago, Gobeklitepe located in the city of Sanliurda Turkey, is a well-known region where human beings had learned to thrive through agriculture and found a permanent settlement which we can trace back to the cultivation of wheat.
Thanks to wheat, which could supply the daily energy source needed and could be cultivated in any convenient field, the period of time allocated for hunting and gathering decreased. So people had more time to spend on activities such as architecture, religion and socialization...
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THE STORE-WAY TO HUNAN: CHINA'S GRAIN STORAGE PROBLEM
Published January 2018 by Mike Jeapes, Portfolio Director, Global Grain Events
China is one of the largest stakeholders in ensuring global food security. Informed speculators are taking positions to benefit; they’re putting it all on red.
China’s solution is to control the global grain supply chain. By subsidising recent upgrades on internal loading and transportation facilities, and with its trading firms acquiring interests in origination markets as well transport and logistics firms, China is reducing the risk in ensuring its population’s food needs are met...
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THE GRAIN OPPORTUNITY NEXT DOOR
Published January 2018 by Olumide Famakinwa, CEO, Firstling Ltd
2017 bows out in style and 2018 slowly creeps in. Quite a resilient business year with a lot of positive components surging into 2018. Companies, Countries and Continents have hit the overdrive on their performance and result. Analysis filtering on country A growing by x% while another declined by y%. The developments and declines are being attributed to one major or several reasons, discussions centered around real GDP growth, income growth, commodity prices and economic trends...
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BLACK SEA IN 2017: RECORD CROP AND EXPORTS. WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2018?
Published January 2018 by Svetlana Malysh, Black Sea Agriculture Markets Analyst, Thomson Reuters
In 2017 Black Sea countries kept increasing their grain crops and exports, mainly due to the record crop and stocks in Russian. According to the results of 2017/18 season Black Sea may became the world leading grain exporter. According to Thomson Reuters’ specialists, next season Black Sea region may retain its high grain export potential...
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THE STATE INTERVENTIONIST MONSTER
Published November 2017 by Marcelo Neri, CEO, Alphamar
In July 2001, I made my first international business trip. Exactly two months before the infamous September 11th, I was near the Twin Towers.
The person who is now my partner called me and asked me to pass by the first bookstore in New York to buy a copy of the magazine "The Economist". He said to me, "Go in…
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INFORMALLY ACQUIRING THE GLOBAL GRAIN INDUSTRY
Published August 2017 by Mike Jeapes, Portfolio Director, Global Grain Events
News outlets have been reporting that following the latest financial round of results, Bunge is on the ropes. While it’s likely that they’ll bounce back, especially if they’re Bunge ropes, that hasn’t thrown Glencore off of the M&A scent.
Back in May, Glencore made an “informal” takeover approach for Bunge. I’ve yet to witness an informal takeover approach; presumably Glencore…
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