60 SECONDS WITH AN INDUSTRY LEADER: DAN BASSE

Snapshot interview with Dan Basse, President, AgResource Chicago 

Published September 2018

 

Macro 

What do you see as the two most important issues globally currently and why? How will these impact the market?

Trade Disputes and world grain yields rising faster than demand.

 

What impact will current market conditions have on market fundamentals for the next marketing year and production in your region? What are the implications for grain and oilseed pricing?

Weather and African Swine Fever across China. 

 

What do you think has been the biggest change in the grain and oilseed industry over the last 24-36 months?

Consolidation and lowering of fees due to technology and competition.

 

Do you think the role of the grain or oilseed trader has changed in the last 5 years? If so in what way?

No change.

 

What values do you think shape the global grain and oilseed industry and why?

The same – ability to call the market correctly. 

Weather

What affect is/will weather have on grain prices?

Weather will always have an impact on supply. But new demand drivers are needed.  Normal weather = lower prices. Rallies only occur with adverse weather and supply dislocation.

 

What has been strongest influence on global weather patterns and how have these affected plantings and growth?

World Ocean temps and the rapid cooling of the sun.

 

Regional

What can we expect from the Black Sea region going forward and how will it affect the global grain industry?

Expansion – they will continue to be the world’s largest wheat exporter 

 

What impact do you think the geopolitics of twitter / Trump-China relations have had on the Brazilian and Argentina soybean market?

No one knows how long the US/China trade dispute will last, but Brazil will expand production to satisfy all Chinese demand in 2 years. 

 

Where do you see the South-East Asian market going in the next 12-18months?

Down – improved weather likely in 2018/19. 

 

 

Technology & Innovation

What impact do you think technology is having on the industry?

Lab-based meat, blockchain trading will diminish the need for futures markets/human capital.

 

About you

How did you get in to the industry?

Long time ago – 1979.

 

If you weren’t in the grain and oilseed/agriculture industry, what industry would you have gone in to?

Weather Forecasting

 

You can hear more from Dan at Global Grain Geneva, taking place on 13-15 November 2018.